Value bets
Prices that sit above our estimated chance, ranked by edge. We checked 15 priced fixtures; 10 selections currently show a positive edge.
| Match | Pick | Odds | Our chance | Fair odds | Edge | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rochdale v York CityLeague Two · Sat 15:00 | Home win | 4.00 | 28.8% | 3.47 | +15.4% | |
 Port Vale v AccringtonLeague Two · Sat 15:00 | Away win | 3.75 | 29.8% | 3.35 | +11.8% | |
 Shrewsbury v OldhamLeague Two · Sat 15:00 | Home win | 2.55 | 43.5% | 2.30 | +11.0% | |
 Colchester v GillinghamLeague Two · Sat 15:00 | Away win | 3.40 | 31.3% | 3.20 | +6.3% | |
 Swindon v GrimsbyLeague Two · Sat 15:00 | Home win | 3.20 | 32.6% | 3.07 | +4.2% | |
 Wigan v BarnsleyLeague One · Sat 15:00 | Under 3.5 | 1.51 | 68.4% | 1.46 | +3.3% | |
 Stockport v ReadingLeague One · Sat 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 2.10 | 48.6% | 2.06 | +2.1% | |
 Sheffield Wed v PlymouthLeague One · Sat 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 2.30 | 44.2% | 2.26 | +1.6% | |
 Exeter v CheltenhamLeague Two · Sat 12:30 | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 56.2% | 1.78 | +1.1% | |
| Swindon v GrimsbyLeague Two · Sat 15:00 | Draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 3.75 | +0.1% |
How to read this table
How is the edge calculated?
Edge is our estimated probability multiplied by the decimal odds, minus one. A 45% chance at odds of 2.40 gives 0.45 × 2.40 − 1 = +8%. A positive edge means the price is longer than our estimate says it should be.
Does a positive edge mean the bet will win?
No. Edge describes the long-run average across many similar bets. Any single bet can and often will lose, and our estimates can be wrong, especially early in the season or when team news changes.
Where do the odds come from?
Prices come from the public match data we use and may differ from what your bookmaker offers. Always check the live price before acting on anything.
Probabilities are estimates from a statistical model built on this season's results and, where available, bookmaker prices. They are not guarantees and are not betting advice. 18+ only. Read the disclaimer.