Rochdale vs York City prediction
Our read
The numbers lean towards a York City win at 46%. We expect about 3.2 goals (Rochdale 1.38, York City 1.79), so the goal line reads Over 2.5 and both teams to score reads BTTS yes.
29%25%46%
RochdaleDrawYork City
Strength · Based on season results blended with bookmaker prices.
Goals
Over 0.595%
Over 1.583%
Over 2.561%
Over 3.539%
Both teams score63%
Rochdale clean sheet17%
York City clean sheet25%
Correct score
RCH ↓YORK →
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
5.0
6.7
6.7
4.0
1.8
0.7
1
5.0
11
9.3
5.6
2.5
0.9
2
4.0
7.2
6.4
3.8
1.7
0.6
3
1.8
3.3
3.0
1.8
0.8
4
0.6
1.1
1.0
0.6
5
Most likely: 1-1 11.2%, 1-2 9.3%, 2-1 7.2%
Halves
League Two sides have scored 44% of their goals before half-time this season, so we expect 1.41 goals in the first half and 1.77 in the second.
Goal in 1st half75%
2+ goals in 1st half41%
Goal in 2nd half83%
2+ goals in 2nd half53%
Other markets
| Market | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance Rochdale or draw | 53.5% | 1.87 |
| Double chance draw or York City | 71.2% | 1.41 |
| Double chance either team wins | 75.3% | 1.33 |
| Draw no bet Rochdale | 38.3% | 2.61 |
| Draw no bet York City | 61.7% | 1.62 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 21.4% | 4.66 |
Prices against our numbers
Reference odds from our data feed. Edge is our chance × odds − 1. Check your bookmaker’s live price.
| Pick | Odds | Bookmaker implied | Our chance | Edge | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.00 | 23.2% | 28.8% | +15.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 1.59 | 57.5% | 61.4% | -2.3% | |
| Draw | 3.95 | 23.5% | 24.7% | -2.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 2.15 | 42.5% | 38.6% | -17.1% | |
| Away win | 1.74 | 53.3% | 46.5% | -19.1% |
Rochdale form
- L31 Oct@ Port Vale2–4L2E
- L24 Octv Accrington0–5L2E
- D20 Octv Grimsby2–2L2E
- L17 Oct@ Crewe2–3L2E
- D10 Oct@ Tranmere1–1L2E
- W3 Octv Swindon1–0L2E
- Played
- 14
- W–D–L
- 4–3–7
- Goals per game
- 1.21 for 1.86 against
- Both teams scored
- 50%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Clean sheets
- 29%
- Failed to score
- 29%
York City form
- L31 Oct@ Grimsby2–5L2E
- L27 Oct@ Barnet1–3L2E
- W24 Octv Port Vale2–0L2E
- D20 Octv Accrington1–1L2E
- D17 Oct@ Newport1–1L2E
- D10 Octv Northampton1–1L2E
- Played
- 14
- W–D–L
- 5–5–4
- Goals per game
- 1.71 for 1.50 against
- Both teams scored
- 71%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Clean sheets
- 21%
- Failed to score
- 7%
Head to head
- 25 Apr 2026Rochdale1–1York City
- 11 Nov 2025York City4–1Rochdale
- 25 Mar 2025Rochdale0–4York City
- 20 Aug 2024York City1–0Rochdale
- 16 Dec 2023Rochdale0–0York City
When Rochdale score
18%1–15
0%16–30
18%31–45+
12%46–60
12%61–75
41%76–90+
When York City score
17%1–15
17%16–30
13%31–45+
8%46–60
21%61–75
25%76–90+
Probabilities are estimates from a statistical model built on this season's results and, where available, bookmaker prices. They are not guarantees and are not betting advice. 18+ only. Read the disclaimer.