Port Vale vs Accrington Stanley prediction
Our read
The numbers lean towards a Port Vale win at 41%. We expect about 2.4 goals (Port Vale 1.31, Accrington 1.09), so the goal line reads Goals close to 2.5 and both teams to score reads BTTS 50/50.
Strength · Based on season results blended with bookmaker prices.
Goals
Correct score
Most likely: 1-1 14.0%, 1-0 10.9%, 0-0 10.1%
Halves
League Two sides have scored 44% of their goals before half-time this season, so we expect 1.06 goals in the first half and 1.34 in the second.
Other markets
| Market | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance Port Vale or draw | 70.2% | 1.42 |
| Double chance draw or Accrington | 59.3% | 1.69 |
| Double chance either team wins | 70.5% | 1.42 |
| Draw no bet Port Vale | 57.7% | 1.73 |
| Draw no bet Accrington | 42.3% | 2.36 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 9.6% | 10.45 |
Prices against our numbers
Reference odds from our data feed. Edge is our chance × odds − 1. Check your bookmaker’s live price.
| Pick | Odds | Bookmaker implied | Our chance | Edge | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win | 3.75 | 24.6% | 29.8% | +11.8% | |
| Draw | 3.30 | 28.0% | 29.5% | -2.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 1.69 | 54.2% | 57.0% | -3.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 2.00 | 45.8% | 43.0% | -14.0% | |
| Home win | 1.95 | 47.4% | 40.7% | -20.7% |
Port Vale form
- W31 Octv Rochdale4–2L2E
- L24 Oct@ York City0–2L2E
- D20 Oct@ Gillingham1–1L2E
- W17 Octv Chesterfield1–0L2E
- W10 Octv Grimsby1–0L2E
- L19 Sep@ Walsall0–2L2E
- Played
- 12
- W–D–L
- 4–3–5
- Goals per game
- 0.83 for 1.17 against
- Both teams scored
- 33%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 17%
- Clean sheets
- 33%
- Failed to score
- 42%
Accrington form
- D31 Octv Northampton1–1L2E
- W24 Oct@ Rochdale5–0L2E
- D20 Oct@ York City1–1L2E
- W17 Octv Gillingham3–1L2E
- D10 Oct@ Oldham0–0L2E
- W3 Octv Cheltenham2–0L2E
- Played
- 14
- W–D–L
- 4–7–3
- Goals per game
- 1.64 for 1.21 against
- Both teams scored
- 64%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Clean sheets
- 29%
- Failed to score
- 21%
Head to head
- 7 Oct 2025Accrington Stanley0–2Port Vale
- 1 Feb 2025Port Vale2–1Accrington Stanley
- 21 Sep 2024Accrington Stanley2–2Port Vale
- 7 Apr 2023Accrington Stanley3–0Port Vale
- 7 Feb 2023Port Vale1–1Accrington Stanley
When Port Vale score
When Accrington score
Probabilities are estimates from a statistical model built on this season's results and, where available, bookmaker prices. They are not guarantees and are not betting advice. 18+ only. Read the disclaimer.