Swindon Town vs Grimsby Town prediction
Our read
The numbers lean towards a Grimsby win at 41%. We expect about 2.9 goals (Swindon 1.34, Grimsby 1.52), so the goal line reads Goals close to 2.5 and both teams to score reads BTTS yes.
33%27%40%
SwindonDrawGrimsby
Strength · Based on season results blended with bookmaker prices.
Goals
Over 0.593%
Over 1.579%
Over 2.555%
Over 3.532%
Both teams score59%
Swindon clean sheet22%
Grimsby clean sheet26%
Correct score
SWI ↓GRI →
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6.6
7.8
6.6
3.4
1.3
1
6.7
13
8.9
4.5
1.7
0.5
2
5.1
7.8
6.0
3.0
1.2
3
2.3
3.5
2.7
1.4
0.5
4
0.8
1.2
0.9
5
Most likely: 1-1 12.6%, 1-2 8.9%, 2-1 7.8%
Halves
League Two sides have scored 44% of their goals before half-time this season, so we expect 1.27 goals in the first half and 1.60 in the second.
Goal in 1st half72%
2+ goals in 1st half36%
Goal in 2nd half80%
2+ goals in 2nd half47%
Other markets
| Market | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance Swindon or draw | 59.3% | 1.69 |
| Double chance draw or Grimsby | 67.4% | 1.48 |
| Double chance either team wins | 73.3% | 1.36 |
| Draw no bet Swindon | 44.4% | 2.25 |
| Draw no bet Grimsby | 55.6% | 1.80 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 16.3% | 6.15 |
Prices against our numbers
Reference odds from our data feed. Edge is our chance × odds − 1. Check your bookmaker’s live price.
| Pick | Odds | Bookmaker implied | Our chance | Edge | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.20 | 29.0% | 32.6% | +4.2% | |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.7% | 26.7% | +0.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 2.20 | 41.6% | 45.4% | -0.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 1.57 | 58.4% | 54.6% | -14.3% | |
| Away win | 2.00 | 46.3% | 40.7% | -18.5% |
Swindon form
- W31 Octv Rotherham2–1L2E
- D24 Oct@ Bristol Rovers0–0L2E
- W20 Oct@ Barnet3–1L2E
- D17 Octv Walsall1–1L2E
- L10 Octv Crewe0–1L2E
- L3 Oct@ Rochdale0–1L2E
- Played
- 14
- W–D–L
- 5–4–5
- Goals per game
- 1.07 for 1.21 against
- Both teams scored
- 50%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Clean sheets
- 14%
- Failed to score
- 50%
Grimsby form
- W31 Octv York City5–2L2E
- W24 Oct@ Gillingham4–1L2E
- D20 Oct@ Rochdale2–2L2E
- L17 Octv Northampton0–2L2E
- L10 Oct@ Port Vale0–1L2E
- L3 Octv Shrewsbury1–2L2E
- Played
- 14
- W–D–L
- 5–5–4
- Goals per game
- 1.71 for 1.29 against
- Both teams scored
- 57%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Clean sheets
- 29%
- Failed to score
- 21%
Head to head
- 25 Apr 2026Grimsby Town4–0Swindon Town
- 22 Nov 2025Swindon Town2–2Grimsby Town
- 18 Apr 2025Grimsby Town0–4Swindon Town
- 21 Dec 2024Swindon Town3–1Grimsby Town
- 20 Apr 2024Grimsby Town2–0Swindon Town
When Swindon score
20%1–15
7%16–30
27%31–45+
13%46–60
7%61–75
27%76–90+
When Grimsby score
13%1–15
8%16–30
25%31–45+
13%46–60
25%61–75
17%76–90+
Probabilities are estimates from a statistical model built on this season's results and, where available, bookmaker prices. They are not guarantees and are not betting advice. 18+ only. Read the disclaimer.