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Prediction Models

Inside football prediction models: Poisson, Dixon-Coles, ratings, market odds and how to judge a model honestly.

Prediction Models · 3 Nov 2026 · 3 minHow to Calculate Expected Goals for a Football MatchHow to calculate expected goals for a football match: league average, attack and defence ratings, with a worked example and what to do next.
Matchday wire
Value Rochdale v York City: Home win @ 4.00Value Port Vale v Accrington: Away win @ 3.75Value Shrewsbury v Oldham: Home win @ 2.55Value Colchester v Gillingham: Away win @ 3.40Value Swindon v Grimsby: Home win @ 3.20