Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion prediction
Our read
The numbers lean towards a MK Dons win at 55%. We expect about 3.0 goals (MK Dons 1.90, Burton Albion 1.12), so the goal line reads Over 2.5 and both teams to score reads BTTS yes.
55%24%21%
MK DonsDrawBurton Albion
Strength · Based on season results blended with bookmaker prices.
Goals
Over 0.594%
Over 1.581%
Over 2.558%
Over 3.536%
Both teams score58%
MK Dons clean sheet32%
Burton Albion clean sheet15%
Correct score
MKD ↓BRT →
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
5.7
4.6
3.1
1.2
1
8.4
11
5.8
2.2
0.6
2
8.8
9.9
5.6
2.1
0.6
3
5.6
6.2
3.5
1.3
4
2.6
3.0
1.7
0.6
5
1.0
1.1
0.6
Most likely: 1-1 11.2%, 2-1 9.9%, 2-0 8.8%
Halves
League One sides have scored 40% of their goals before half-time this season, so we expect 1.21 goals in the first half and 1.81 in the second.
Goal in 1st half70%
2+ goals in 1st half34%
Goal in 2nd half84%
2+ goals in 2nd half54%
Other markets
| Market | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance MK Dons or draw | 78.6% | 1.27 |
| Double chance draw or Burton Albion | 45.4% | 2.20 |
| Double chance either team wins | 76.0% | 1.32 |
| Draw no bet MK Dons | 71.8% | 1.39 |
| Draw no bet Burton Albion | 28.2% | 3.54 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 18.9% | 5.30 |
Prices against our numbers
Reference odds from our data feed. Edge is our chance × odds − 1. Check your bookmaker’s live price.
| Pick | Odds | Bookmaker implied | Our chance | Edge | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win | 4.50 | 20.6% | 21.5% | -3.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 1.61 | 56.6% | 58.2% | -6.3% | |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.8% | 24.0% | -6.5% | |
| Home win | 1.67 | 55.6% | 54.6% | -8.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 2.10 | 43.4% | 41.8% | -12.2% |
MK Dons form
- W31 Octv Doncaster6–1L1E
- W27 Octv Bromley4–1L1E
- W24 Oct@ Stevenage1–0L1E
- L20 Oct@ Blackpool0–2L1E
- W17 Octv Luton2–1L1E
- L10 Octv Reading1–5L1E
- Played
- 13
- W–D–L
- 4–6–3
- Goals per game
- 1.69 for 1.54 against
- Both teams scored
- 69%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Clean sheets
- 23%
- Failed to score
- 23%
Burton Albion form
- L31 Oct@ Wycombe0–2L1E
- W24 Octv Leyton Orient2–1L1E
- D20 Octv Bradford0–0L1E
- D17 Oct@ Peterborough2–2L1E
- L10 Oct@ Doncaster0–1L1E
- L3 Octv Huddersfield1–3L1E
- Played
- 14
- W–D–L
- 4–5–5
- Goals per game
- 1.29 for 1.50 against
- Both teams scored
- 64%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Clean sheets
- 14%
- Failed to score
- 29%
Head to head
- 7 May 2023Burton Albion0–0Milton Keynes Dons
- 3 Dec 2022Milton Keynes Dons1–1Burton Albion
- 25 Jan 2022Burton Albion0–1Milton Keynes Dons
- 20 Nov 2021Milton Keynes Dons1–0Burton Albion
- 31 Aug 2021Burton Albion1–2Milton Keynes Dons
When MK Dons score
5%1–15
18%16–30
9%31–45+
18%46–60
14%61–75
36%76–90+
When Burton Albion score
6%1–15
39%16–30
11%31–45+
11%46–60
11%61–75
22%76–90+
Probabilities are estimates from a statistical model built on this season's results and, where available, bookmaker prices. They are not guarantees and are not betting advice. 18+ only. Read the disclaimer.