Crewe Alexandra vs Newport County prediction
Our read
The numbers lean towards a Crewe win at 42%. We expect about 2.5 goals (Crewe 1.40, Newport 1.13), so the goal line reads Goals close to 2.5 and both teams to score reads BTTS 50/50.
42%29%29%
CreweDrawNewport
Strength · Based on season results blended with bookmaker prices.
Goals
Over 0.591%
Over 1.573%
Over 2.546%
Over 3.525%
Both teams score52%
Crewe clean sheet32%
Newport clean sheet25%
Correct score
CAX ↓NEW →
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
9.0
8.0
5.1
1.9
0.5
1
10
14
7.1
2.7
0.8
2
7.8
8.8
5.0
1.9
0.5
3
3.6
4.1
2.3
0.9
4
1.3
1.4
0.8
5
Most likely: 1-1 13.6%, 1-0 10.2%, 0-0 9.0%
Halves
League Two sides have scored 44% of their goals before half-time this season, so we expect 1.12 goals in the first half and 1.40 in the second.
Goal in 1st half67%
2+ goals in 1st half31%
Goal in 2nd half75%
2+ goals in 2nd half41%
Other markets
| Market | Our chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance Crewe or draw | 70.7% | 1.42 |
| Double chance draw or Newport | 57.9% | 1.73 |
| Double chance either team wins | 71.4% | 1.40 |
| Draw no bet Crewe | 58.9% | 1.70 |
| Draw no bet Newport | 41.1% | 2.43 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11.2% | 8.94 |
Prices against our numbers
Reference odds from our data feed. Edge is our chance × odds − 1. Check your bookmaker’s live price.
| Pick | Odds | Bookmaker implied | Our chance | Edge | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win | 3.35 | 27.4% | 29.4% | -1.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 1.77 | 51.9% | 53.8% | -4.8% | |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.8% | 28.6% | -5.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 1.91 | 48.1% | 46.2% | -11.7% | |
| Home win | 2.05 | 44.8% | 42.1% | -13.8% |
Crewe form
- D31 Octv Barnet1–1L2E
- L24 Oct@ Chesterfield1–5L2E
- L20 Oct@ Exeter0–2L2E
- W17 Octv Rochdale3–2L2E
- W10 Oct@ Swindon1–0L2E
- W3 Octv Bristol Rovers3–1L2E
- Played
- 14
- W–D–L
- 5–7–2
- Goals per game
- 1.21 for 1.21 against
- Both teams scored
- 64%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 29%
- Clean sheets
- 29%
- Failed to score
- 14%
Newport form
- W30 Octv Chesterfield4–1L2E
- L24 Oct@ Cheltenham0–1L2E
- D20 Oct@ Rotherham2–2L2E
- D17 Octv York City1–1L2E
- W10 Octv Colchester1–0L2E
- D3 Oct@ Gillingham0–0L2E
- Played
- 14
- W–D–L
- 4–6–4
- Goals per game
- 1.43 for 1.21 against
- Both teams scored
- 57%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Clean sheets
- 29%
- Failed to score
- 29%
Head to head
- 29 Dec 2025Newport County2–0Crewe Alexandra
- 10 Dec 2025Crewe Alexandra2–2Newport County
- 8 Feb 2025Crewe Alexandra0–3Newport County
- 28 Sep 2024Newport County2–1Crewe Alexandra
- 29 Dec 2023Newport County1–1Crewe Alexandra
When Crewe score
12%1–15
18%16–30
12%31–45+
29%46–60
6%61–75
24%76–90+
When Newport score
15%1–15
20%16–30
15%31–45+
15%46–60
15%61–75
20%76–90+
Probabilities are estimates from a statistical model built on this season's results and, where available, bookmaker prices. They are not guarantees and are not betting advice. 18+ only. Read the disclaimer.