Home advantage in football is the extra chance a team has of winning when it plays at its own ground, and it is still clearly visible in the data: across the league games in our data this season, home sides won between 31% and 51% of matches depending on the league, and in every league but two they won more often than the away side. How big home advantage in football is varies a lot from one competition to the next.
This guide looks at what the numbers say this season, what causes home advantage and how prediction models account for it. Live home, draw and away rates for every league are on our league tables page.
Home Advantage in Football at a Glance
| League | Home wins | Draws | Away wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 51% | 21% | 29% |
| Belgian Pro League | 51% | 19% | 30% |
| Süper Lig | 48% | 17% | 35% |
| League Two | 47% | 34% | 19% |
| Serie A | 45% | 17% | 38% |
| Championship | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Premier League | 39% | 29% | 33% |
| Primeira Liga | 37% | 22% | 41% |
| Eredivisie | 31% | 29% | 40% |
League games in WinnScore’s data since the start of the 2026–27 season, as of 28 October 2026. Rows may not add to 100% because of rounding.
How Big Is Home Advantage This Season?
It ranges from large to absent. In the Bundesliga and the Belgian Pro League home sides have won 51% of games. In League Two the gap between home wins (47%) and away wins (19%) is the widest of any league we cover. At the other end, away teams have won more often than home teams so far in the Eredivisie and the Primeira Liga, a reminder that early-season samples are small and can be shaped by a few strong away sides.
What Causes Home Advantage?
Researchers point to several factors, and the home advantage entry on Wikipedia summarises the main ones: crowd support, familiarity with the pitch and surroundings, the absence of travel and the influence of the crowd on officials. In football, cup competitions have long reflected it, for example with two-legged ties where each side hosts once.
No single cause explains it fully, and its size can change over time, which is why we measure it from current results rather than assuming a fixed value.
How Do Prediction Models Account for Home Advantage?
Our model does not add a flat bonus. It compares each team’s goals with the league’s own average for home sides and for away sides, so a league where home teams score much more gets a bigger home effect automatically. Where bookmaker prices exist, they are blended in, and they also carry the market’s view of home advantage for that match.
Should You Always Back the Home Team?
No. Home advantage is already built into the odds, so backing home sides blindly simply pays the bookmaker’s margin on a well-known effect. It is more useful to ask whether a particular team is stronger or weaker at home than its overall record suggests. Every WinnScore team page splits results into home and away, and our form guide explainer shows how to use them.
Frequently Asked Questions
It varies by league and season. In our data this season home sides won between 31% and 51% of league games depending on the competition. In most leagues they won more often than away sides, but the gap ranges from large, as in League Two, to reversed, as in the Eredivisie so far.
Many observers believe it has weakened over the long term, and the effect clearly varies from league to league. Our data only covers the current season, so we cannot measure long-run trends, but we do recalculate each league’s home and away scoring rates every time results update.
In our data as of 28 October 2026, the Bundesliga and Belgian Pro League have the highest home win rates at 51%. League Two shows the widest gap between home and away wins, with 47% of games won by the home side and 19% by the visitors.
Yes. Home advantage is one of the best-known effects in football and it is built into every price. That means backing all home teams does not create value on its own. Value can only come from judging a specific team’s home or away strength better than the market.
Conclusion
Home advantage in football is real but uneven: big in some leagues, small or even reversed in others, and always priced in by the bookmakers. Use current data, look at each team’s home and away split, and treat any single number as an estimate. Our predictions account for it automatically.
How we prepared this guide: Home, draw and away rates come from WinnScore’s own results data as of 28 October 2026; background on causes comes from published references linked in the text. Nothing here is betting advice. If gambling stops being fun, BeGambleAware offers free support. The cover image is an illustrative stock photo.
Probabilities are estimates from a statistical model built on this season's results and, where available, bookmaker prices. They are not guarantees and are not betting advice. 18+ only. Read the disclaimer.
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